Capital Seasons
Invest with the seasons. Not the noise.
Markets move in seasons. Each week I read the conditions, name the season we’re in, and show what that means for an ordinary portfolio, in plain language, with no predictions and no hype.
This week: Spring, holding steady. Index up from 6.48.
This week’s Weather Map
Week ending 9 October 2026Spring, with mixed conditions. A Spring of holding, not strengthening: still planting, but selectively.
Trend
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 are above their 50-day averages. The Dow and small caps are not.
Participation
Only 4 of 11 US sectors rose this month. Technology is carrying the index.
Volatility
The VIX is at 14.84, comfortably below the level that would worry me.
Liquidity
The dollar is up 3.5% this month and bond yields sit at multi-decade highs.
Small-cap canary: for a third week, more than 10% of small companies carry our weakest ratings. Not yet a reason to act, but firmly on the watch list.
Four seasons, four jobs
Every market cycle passes through the same seasons. Knowing which one you’re in tells you what kind of work your portfolio needs.
Spring
Plant
Conditions are improving. Add quality carefully and let new positions take root.
We are hereSummer
Grow
Broad strength. Let good holdings grow and keep sizes in proportion.
Autumn
Harvest
Momentum fades. Take profits on the stretched names and weed what’s broken.
Winter
Protect
Pressure is high. Protect capital, hold quality and wait for the thaw.
The three forces
| Region | Earnings | Inflation | Rates |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | Under pressure | Under pressure | Under pressure |
| United States | Improving | Under pressure | Under pressure |
| Global | Stabilising | Under pressure | Under pressure |
Earnings, inflation and interest rates move every market. This is where each one stands this week.
Sector-Sensei: where the money moved
One-month change. Money is moving towards fast-growing earnings and away from rate-sensitive and commodity-linked areas.
Latest newsletter · 9 October 2026
A Record High, and a Third Week of Whispers
- Why a record index isn’t the same as a broad market
- The Reserve Bank’s hike to 7.25%, and what the rand did
- Why I don’t sell into a headline drop
Who writes this
I’m Mari, founder of Capital Seasons, based in East London. I’ve been investing since 2005, and I built this framework to give ordinary investors what I wanted when I started: structure and confidence instead of noise.
BCom Accounting · MBA in Investment Management · CFA Levels 1 and 2
More about Capital SeasonsOne calm read a week
Every weekend: the season we’re in, the three forces, and what I’m watching next. Free, educational, and written for ordinary investors.
Capital Seasons publications are educational tools designed to support investor awareness and disciplined decision-making. They describe market conditions and investor context. They are not predictions and do not constitute personal financial advice.