CAPITAL SEASONS
WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY
Week Ending 10 April 2026
This commentary is grounded in the investment principles outlined in Dr Bart DiLiddo’s book — specifically the three forces that drive all stock prices: earnings, inflation, and interest rates. The Capital Seasons framework builds on these principles in its own way.
❄ CURRENT SEASON: WINTER / PROTECT ❄
WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY
Global Context Overview
This week’s markets delivered a sharp relief rally — the kind that Winter investors learn to observe carefully, without rushing to act. The S&P 500 (SPY: $679.46) gained +3.6% for the week, its best performance since November 2025. The Nasdaq (QQQ: $611.07) rose +4.5%, and the Dow Jones (DIA: $479.25) added +3.1%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index (IWM: $261.30) added +4.0%. These are meaningful moves — but they arrive in a market that remains technically fragile.
Context matters here. SPY sits only +2.3% above its 200-day moving average and +0.8% above its 50-day — slim margins that signal neither confirmed recovery nor continued breakdown. The index spent six consecutive weeks below its 50-day moving average before this week’s bounce. A Death Cross (50D crossing below 200D) formed in late March — historically a caution signal. One strong week is a signal. Two consecutive strong weeks would begin to look like a pattern. We are not there yet.
The VIX (fear index) closed at 19.23 — down sharply, -19.4% for the week and -22.9% for the month. The acute fear phase is easing. However, VIX remaining above 18 keeps us in mixed-to-cautious territory. A sustained move below 18 would be an early indicator of seasonal improvement worth watching.
Gold (GLD: $437.13, Quant 4.16) remains a key story. It pulled back -8.5% this month as ceasefire news reduced safe-haven urgency, but gold is still +49.5% above year-ago levels and +14.4% above its 200-day moving average. The structural bull run — driven by central bank buying, dollar weakness, and geopolitical uncertainty — remains intact. This is a pause, not a reversal.
The US Dollar (UUP: $27.44, Quant 1.60) continues to weaken — down -1.5% for the week and -0.9% year-on-year. A weakening dollar is generally supportive for commodities, emerging markets, and gold — all of which feature in our current positioning.
South Africa
The JSE remains elevated in longer-term context, though it pulled back to around 118,205 in early April before partially recovering. The index is still approximately +37% above year-ago levels — a strong 12-month run that reflects improved domestic fundamentals and commodity tailwinds.
The rand (ZAR:USD) closed at approximately R16.44/$ (0.06084) — recovering +3.3% for the week. This is a sharp turnaround from March’s weakness, when USD/ZAR spiked to R17.23 on 31 March as Middle East tensions drove oil above $110/barrel and triggered safe-haven dollar buying. The Iran-US ceasefire announced on 8 April changed the picture quickly, pulling the rand back toward R16.48. For SA investors holding US-denominated assets, the rand’s partial recovery creates a modest currency headwind on existing positions but a healthier backdrop for the economy.
SA inflation for February came in at precisely 3.0% — sitting at the lower end of the SARB’s 3–6% target band. Prior to the ceasefire, markets had priced in four potential SARB rate hikes over 18 months. That extreme scenario has unwound significantly. The SARB’s next move remains data-dependent, with oil price persistence the key ongoing risk. S&P Global’s upgrade of South Africa to BB in November 2025 — the first positive rating action in nearly two decades — continues to provide a constructive medium-term backdrop for the rand and JSE.
United States
The Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate at 3.64%. Futures markets, as of 10 April, price a steady path near 3.6% through early 2027 — with only one cut expected for all of 2026, contingent on further inflation progress. The next FOMC meeting is 28–29 April; no change is expected.
Inflation remains the constraint. CPI projections for 2026 have been revised upward to 3.0–4.0%, driven largely by the oil price spike following Strait of Hormuz disruptions earlier in the quarter. Core inflation showed some tameness this week, but analysts caution that if the energy shock persists, broader price pressure could follow. Rates are not going down in a hurry.
Q1 2026 earnings season begins next week, with major US banks the first significant reporters. Financial stocks closed slightly lower this week ahead of results — a normal pre-earnings reset. Technology and semiconductors led the week’s gains, buoyed by strong TSMC results that confirmed AI chip demand remains robust. The DIA carries a Quant score of 3.09 — the weakest of the major indices in our data — reflecting concern about the more cyclically sensitive Dow components heading into results season.
Global Markets
Europe: The ceasefire reduced acute energy cost pressure for European economies. However, structural headwinds — slow growth, high debt, and manufacturing weakness — remain. European equities saw relief bounces but are not leading this recovery.
China: Domestic stimulus measures continue but investor confidence in Chinese equities remains cautious. US-China trade friction stays as a background risk. Chinese commodity demand is a key variable for South African miners and our materials exposure.
Emerging Markets: Dollar weakness and the ceasefire provided a broad EM tailwind this week. South Africa benefited directly. The structural risk — higher-for-longer US rates constraining EM capital flows — has not disappeared, but acute pressure eased considerably.
The Three Forces — Weekly Reading
Earnings, inflation, and interest rates are the three forces that determine market direction. Here is where each stands across regions this week:
| Region | Earnings | Inflation | Interest Rates |
| South Africa | Improving | Stabilising (3.0%) | On hold — data dependent |
| United States | Mixed — early signal | Under pressure (3–4%) | Restrictive — unchanged |
| Global | Mixed | Elevated / geopolitical | Broadly restrictive |
When earnings are rising and inflation and interest rates are falling, bull markets thrive. We are not there yet. Earnings are mixed, inflation is sticky, and rates are anchored high. This is not the environment to abandon Winter discipline — it is the environment to watch the signals carefully and wait for genuine confirmation.
Guidance for Investors
• The ceasefire-driven rally is real — but one week does not change the season. Maintain Winter posture: capital protection first, opportunity second.
• Hold quality positions that have held up well. The strongest names in your portfolio — those with Quant scores above 4.5 and positive 6-month momentum — are the ones you review and keep, not the ones you exit in a relief rally.
• Semiconductors are showing genuine leadership across multiple ETFs. If you hold quality names in this space, watch their 50-day SMA crossovers as a confirmation signal — not the news cycle.
• Gold remains structurally supported. The monthly pullback in GLD (-8.5%) does not break the trend after a very large run. Hold your precious metals positions and monitor for continued trend confirmation.
• Be patient with cash. Capital not deployed is capital available for Spring. Keep seeds dry until the soil conditions confirm.
• Watch next week’s US bank earnings closely. If earnings surprise positively, that is one of the three forces beginning to improve. Consecutive positive weeks would shift the picture meaningfully.
MARKET WEATHER MAP
CAPITAL SEASONS — MARKET WEATHER MAP
Week Ending 11 April 2026 | capitalseasons.co.za
Period
Month (Seasonal Anchor): April 2026
Weekly Update: Week ending Friday, 11 April 2026
1. Market Season (Monthly Anchor)
Current Market Season:
☑ Winter ☐ Early Spring ☐ Late Spring ☐ Early Summer
☐ Late Summer ☐ Early Autumn ☐ Late Autumn
Season Status:
☐ Holding ☐ Strengthening ☑ Weakening ☐ Transition Risk Emerging
Explanation: SPY below its 50-day moving average for six consecutive weeks; VIX at 19.23 — elevated but easing; Death Cross in place since late March. The season has not changed, but Winter’s grip is beginning to soften at the edges. Worth watching — not yet worth acting on.
2. Weekly Market Weather Signal
Market Weather This Week:
☐ Clear ☑ Mostly Calm ☐ Mixed Conditions ☐ Stormy Patches ☐ Defensive Conditions
Explanation: A strong weekly bounce driven by the Iran-US ceasefire announcement on 8 April. VIX dropped sharply from recent highs. However, major indices remain slim above key moving averages and the technical trend has not reversed. Conditions improved meaningfully this week — but ‘clear’ skies require more consistent evidence across multiple weeks.
3. Market Climate Snapshot
Index performance (from data): SPY $679.46 — weekly +3.6%, 1-month +0.3%, 1-year +29.5%, vs 200D SMA +2.3%. QQQ $611.07 — weekly +4.5%, 1-month +0.5%, 1-year +37.0%, vs 200D SMA +2.4%. DIA $479.25 (Quant 3.09) — weekly +3.1%, 1-year +21.1%. IWM $261.30 (Quant 3.84) — weekly +4.0%, 1-year +43.8%, vs 200D SMA +7.1%. All major US indices sit above their 200-day moving averages, but only marginally in the case of SPY and QQQ.
VIX: 19.23. Down -19.4% for the week and -22.9% for the month. The 18–25 range historically corresponds to Autumn-to-Winter transition conditions. A sustained move and close below 18 over two or more consecutive weeks would be an early Spring indicator worth noting.
Gold (GLD $437.13, Quant 4.16): 1-month -8.5%, 1-year +49.5%, vs 200D SMA +14.4%. The ceasefire reduced the acute safe-haven bid this week (+1.8% weekly). Gold’s structural drivers remain intact — dollar weakness, central bank demand, real yield dynamics. This is a healthy pause in a strong trend.
US Dollar (UUP $27.44, Quant 1.60): weekly -1.5%, 1-year -0.9%. The dollar’s continued weakness is a tailwind for gold, emerging markets, and commodities. The low Quant score of 1.60 confirms that the dollar is not a place to seek strength in this environment.
Rand (ZAR:USD 0.06084 = R16.44/$): weekly +3.3%, 1-month -1.2%, 1-year +17.8%. Sharp recovery from the R17.23 high of 31 March. SA inflation at 3.0% and the S&P credit upgrade to BB provide supportive domestic context. The rand remains sensitive to oil prices and global risk sentiment.
4. What This Means for Investors
Focus on:
• Quality holdings with strong earnings trajectories — particularly in semiconductors, energy services, and precious metals where Quant scores remain high.
• The rand’s direction: further strengthening would create a modest currency headwind on USD-denominated holdings but is positive for the broader SA economy.
• VIX direction over the next two weeks. Sustained improvement below 18 would be a meaningful seasonal signal.
Be cautious with:
• Adding new positions before confirmation. Relief rallies in Winter can be sharp and short. One week of calm does not earn a change of season.
• Silver miners and junior gold miners — both showed meaningful weakness this month despite gold’s structural strength. Profit-taking or sector-specific reassessment may not be finished.
• Healthcare (XLV Quant 1.91) and Consumer Staples (XLP Quant 1.79) — the two lowest-rated sectors in the data. These are not defensive leadership sectors in this cycle.
Avoid for now:
• Rushing into positions that have already run 100%+ over 12 months without a fresh fundamental trigger.
• Reading this week’s rally as a seasonal change. The season changes when the three forces change — not when the news improves for a few days.
5. Capital Seasons Guidance
Winter teaches patience. The market gave us a welcome week of calmer air — but the season changes when the data changes, not when the news improves for a few days. Maintain your Winter posture, review your garden carefully, and let the strongest seeds show you what they are made of. The seeds we protect now will determine the harvest we enjoy in Summer.
6. Mari’s Overlay
Watching the rand recover this week reminded me of something important: it is easy to confuse a weather event with a climate shift. The ceasefire is the weather. The underlying conditions — sticky US inflation, a Fed on hold, markets technically fragile — are the climate. My positioning in gold-related names held up through the volatility, and that tells me something about the quality of what I am holding. I am not adding yet. I am watching. And in Winter, watching is itself an act of discipline.
Capital Seasons Market Weather Maps are educational tools designed to support investor awareness and disciplined decision-making. They describe market conditions and investor context. They are not predictions and do not constitute personal financial advice.
SECTOR SENSEI — ROTATION REPORT
CAPITAL SEASONS SECTOR SENSEI
Week Ending 11 April 2026 | Rotation & Leadership Analysis
Quant scores shown are from the Sectors sheet — they reflect quality and momentum ratings for each ETF.
Leading Sectors — 1-Month Performance
The data this week tells a clear and consistent story: Semiconductors are the dominant leadership theme, followed by Space, Telecom, Connectivity, and Energy Services. This is not random rotation — it reflects genuine earnings-backed growth in AI infrastructure demand and, separately, elevated oil-service activity driven by geopolitical supply concerns.
| Ticker | ETF / Theme | 1M Perf | 1Y Perf | vs 200D | Quant |
| PSI | Semiconductors (Invesco Pure) | 17.4% | 158.9% | 40.8% | 4.96 |
| FTXL | Semiconductors (First Trust) | 16.0% | 157.4% | 38.9% | 4.95 |
| SOXX | Semiconductors (iShares) | 14.1% | 129.3% | 30.8% | 4.85 |
| SOXQ | Semiconductors (Invesco) | 12.9% | 128.2% | 29.0% | 4.81 |
| UFO | Space (Procure) | 11.7% | 144.2% | 33.6% | 4.67 |
| SHOC | Semiconductors (Strive) | 10.3% | 123.2% | 25.3% | 4.69 |
| XTL | Telecom (SPDR) | 8.5% | 126.9% | 37.0% | 4.71 |
| SIXG | 6G / Connectivity (Defiance) | 8.4% | 87.9% | 17.2% | 4.44 |
| OIH | Oil Services (VanEck) | 7.2% | 102.2% | 36.8% | 4.62 |
| AIRR | Industrials (First Trust) | 7.2% | 82.6% | 20.2% | 4.60 |
Semiconductor dominance: PSI (+17.4%, Quant 4.96), FTXL (+16.0%, Quant 4.95), SOXX (+14.1%, Quant 4.85), SOXQ (+12.9%, Quant 4.81) — four semiconductor ETFs rank in the top four for 1-month performance, all carrying Quant scores above 4.80. TSMC’s strong results this week confirmed that AI chip demand remains robust. This sector is behaving like a Spring/Summer leader inside a broader Winter market — a green sprout that deserves attention but not yet full Spring conviction.
Energy Services (OIH +7.2%, Quant 4.62; IEZ +6.2%, Quant 4.59; XES +5.8%, Quant 4.68): Strait of Hormuz disruptions elevated oil service demand through most of the quarter. Even with the ceasefire, these names remain elevated. The 1-year return for OIH is +102.2% — a mature run that warrants monitoring for profit-taking signals.
Infrastructure & Industrials (AIRR +7.2%, Quant 4.60; PRN +9.4%, Quant 4.47; PAVE +5.0%, Quant 4.36): US infrastructure spending continues to benefit selected industrial names. A quieter, steadier leadership theme than semiconductors — but a real and consistent one.
Lagging Sectors — Handle With Care
| Ticker | ETF / Theme | 1M Perf | 1Y Perf | Quant |
| SLVR | Silver Equities | -17.1% | 168.3% | 3.05 |
| SILJ | Silver Juniors | -11.3% | 170.8% | 4.39 |
| SIL | Silver Miners | -8.0% | 153.4% | 4.43 |
| SGDJ | Gold Juniors (Sprott) | -8.6% | 120.2% | 4.38 |
| GDXJ | Gold Juniors (VanEck) | -7.3% | 121.3% | 4.43 |
| NLR | Nuclear Energy | -4.3% | 90.9% | 4.22 |
| XLV | Health Care (SPDR) | -3.8% | 9.2% | 1.91 |
| XLP | Consumer Staples (SPDR) | -3.9% | 3.8% | 1.79 |
Silver miners (SLVR -17.1%, SILJ -11.3%, SIL -8.0%): Sharp monthly pullback despite gold’s longer-term structural strength. Silver is more industrially sensitive than gold and considerably more volatile. Notably, SILJ and SIL still carry Quant scores of 4.39 and 4.43 — the underlying names remain well-rated. This looks like a momentum pause and profit-taking after very large 1-year runs, rather than a fundamental exit signal. Watch rather than exit.
Healthcare (XLV -3.8%, Quant 1.91) and Consumer Staples (XLP -3.9%, Quant 1.79): The two lowest Quant-rated sectors in the dataset are also the two most defensive sectors — and they are both lagging. When traditional defensive sectors carry the weakest quality scores and the weakest recent performance, it tells you the market is not seeking safety in the conventional sense. It is seeking growth and commodity exposure instead. Neither sector earns a place in a Winter garden right now.
Nuclear Energy (NLR -4.3%, Quant 4.22): Pulled back meaningfully this month, though the 1-year return remains +90.9%. The nuclear thematic remains intact medium-term but is experiencing a momentum reset. Worth monitoring.
WEBSITE WEATHER COMMENTARY
This week, markets caught their breath. A ceasefire between the US and Iran eased the acute pressure that had built through late March. US indices posted their best weekly gains since November. The VIX retreated but remains elevated. Gold paused after a historic run. The rand recovered from multi-month lows. South Africa’s inflation holds near 3.0% — a rare point of quiet in a noisy global picture. Conditions improved this week. The season has not changed. Winter investors note the greener patches and continue to tend their gardens with patience.
Capital Seasons | Invest with the seasons. Not the noise.
capitalseasons.co.za
Disclaimer: Capital Seasons is an educational platform. Content does not constitute personal financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
The Rally Arrived. The Season Did Not Change.