| CAPITAL SEASONS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending Friday, 25 April 2026 | In the tradition of Dr Bart DiLiddo |
EARLY SPRING — TRANSITIONING VIX 18.71 · SPY +5.5% above 50D · QQQ +9.5% above 50D
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS
GLOBAL CONTEXT OVERVIEW
Week ending 25 April 2026 delivered a market that continued to build on a meaningful recovery from the geopolitical disruption of recent weeks. The S&P 500 (SPY) closed at $713.94 — up 9.3% over the trailing month, sitting 5.5% above its 50-day moving average and 6.8% above its 200-day moving average. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) at $663.88 added 13.7% over the month and is 9.5% above its 50-day SMA and 10.4% above its 200-day SMA. Both indices have been above their 50-day moving averages for two consecutive weeks, and the VIX has been below 20. Under the Capital Seasons framework, that confirms Early Spring.
The engine driving this recovery is earnings — the first of Dr Bart DiLiddo’s three forces. According to FactSet data released this week, 28% of S&P 500 companies have now reported Q1 2026 results. Blended earnings growth is running at double digits for the sixth consecutive quarter. Revenue growth of 10.3% is on track to be the highest since Q3 2022. Both earnings and revenue surprises are running above recent averages. Intel surged on strong results. Nvidia added 4.3%. Amazon gained over 3%. This is not a liquidity-driven rally built on hope — it has an earnings foundation.
The VIX volatility index closed the week at 18.71, down 30.6% over the month. At 18.71 it is below the 20 threshold that marks the Early Spring entry, and just 0.71 points above the 18 level that would confirm full Spring. The direction is right and consistent. One more week of calm moves us into confirmed Spring territory. Gold (GLD at $433.25) remains strong — up 7.2% in the month and 40.6% over the trailing year. The US dollar (UUP at $27.48) softened slightly over the month (-0.6%), which is constructive for commodities and for emerging market currencies broadly.
The rand weakened approximately 2.5% against the dollar over the month — meaning the dollar bought more rands than before.The JSE (JSEJF at R10.40/$) is 40% above its 200-day moving average — running well ahead of US indices on a relative basis, reflecting commodity strength and local institutional flows.
SOUTH AFRICA
The JSE continued its strong performance this week, sitting 13.2% above its 50-day SMA and 40% above its 200-day SMA. South African equities have been buoyed by commodity strength, rand movement, and selective emerging market inflows. The EZA (South Africa ETF) is up 9.9% over the month.
The SARB held its repo rate unchanged at 6.75% (prime rate 10.25%) at its March meeting, citing upside inflation risk from the Middle East conflict and energy prices. Headline inflation had touched the SARB’s 3% target in February — a genuine milestone — but fuel-driven inflation is projected to push it back toward 4% in Q2 before easing again. The SARB has revised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.7% and now projects only one further rate cut this year. The easing cycle is not over, but it is slower and more cautious than markets had initially hoped.
The rand moved approximately 2.5% weaker against the dollar over the month. As noted above, this is positive for South African investors with USD-denominated assets — their offshore returns convert to more rands. It does, however, add to imported inflation pressure locally, particularly on fuel and food. The SARB will be watching this carefully as it factors into the inflation trajectory.
UNITED STATES
The dominant US narrative this week combined strong earnings momentum with geopolitical relief. The Iran ceasefire extension on Friday lifted sentiment, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs. But the more durable story is the earnings one: revenue and earnings growth are both running above expectations, and the recovery has fundamental support rather than being purely sentiment-driven.
The forward 12-month P/E on the S&P 500 stands at approximately 20.9x — above both the 5-year average (19.9x) and the 10-year average (18.9x). CY2026 earnings growth is being forecast at 18.6%. The market is priced for continued delivery. The Federal Reserve remains on hold, with markets pricing two to three 25-basis-point cuts in 2026. Easing remains a constructive background condition — reducing the discount rate on future earnings and keeping bonds less attractive relative to equities.
The week also produced notable earnings discipline from the market. IBM and ServiceNow both fell sharply despite meeting headline numbers, because forward guidance disappointed investors. This tells us the market is not buying indiscriminately — it is rewarding confidence about the future, not just results from the past. That is healthy market behaviour in Early Spring.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Emerging markets strengthened broadly. EEM added 12.8% in the month and is 15.6% above its 200-day SMA. Brazil (EWZ up 8.9%) and South Africa (EZA up 9.9%) both participated in the recovery. The common thread: a weaker dollar, commodity price recovery, and reduced geopolitical risk premium. China (FXI) remains the structural exception — a Quant rating of just 1.47, navigating domestic headwinds and global trade friction. European markets showed resilience, with EFA up 6.8% over the month.
Copper (COPX up 12.8% in the month, 35.3% over six months) continued to reflect infrastructure demand, energy transition themes, and supply constraints. The commodities complex broadly (DBC up 5.7%) remained constructive. Energy services (IEZ up 7.5% on the month, 56.4% over six months) continued to outperform traditional energy names, which pulled back as the ceasefire removed some of the oil risk premium.
THREE FORCES SUMMARY
| Region | Earnings | Inflation | Interest Rates |
| South Africa | Stabilising | 3.7% forecast 2026 | On hold at 6.75% |
| United States | Improving — 6th consecutive double-digit quarter | Above target ~3% | Easing path intact |
| Global | Improving (tech leads) | Energy-driven risk | Diverging globally |
GUIDANCE FOR INVESTORS
- The season has changed. Both SPY and QQQ are above their 50-day moving averages, and the VIX is below 20. We are in Early Spring — the time to prepare the garden, not to rush into it. Review your watchlist. Know what you will plant when the VIX confirms below 18.
- Earnings are the foundation of this recovery. Revenue and earnings growth running above expectations is the right kind of market to begin planting seeds in — not a rally built purely on sentiment or liquidity.
- The VIX at 18.71 is 0.71 points from full Spring confirmation. One more calm week moves the season forward. Until then: selective and deliberate entries only.
- For South African investors: the rand’s weakness against the dollar this month is positive for your USD-denominated holdings — offshore returns convert to more rands. However, watch the inflation impact locally, as rand weakness pushes up fuel and import prices, which complicates the SARB’s rate path.
- Gold (GLD Quant 4.35, up 40.6% over the year) and gold miners remain core holdings. Even in Early Spring, these assets earn their place. There is no urgency to reduce them.
- The sectors to watch for first Spring positions: copper and materials (strong 6-month base, 3-month recovering), energy services (IEZ — exceptional 6-month base), and technology on pullbacks. Semiconductors and AI are already extended — hold what you have, wait for a better entry before adding.
| CAPITAL SEASONS WEATHER MAP — INLINE READING This week’s Capital Seasons Weather Map registers EARLY SPRING, with MOSTLY CALM conditions and a TRANSITIONING posture. TREND: SPY +5.5% and QQQ +9.5% above their 50-day SMAs. Both indices have been above these levels for two consecutive weeks. By the Capital Seasons season criteria, this confirms Early Spring. PARTICIPATION: Semiconductors and AI leading strongly. Copper, materials, and industrials participating. Healthcare and Financials still lagging — breadth is building but not yet broad. VOLATILITY: VIX 18.71 — below 20, confirming Early Spring. One step from full Spring at 18. Direction is correct and consistent week on week. LIQUIDITY: USD softening (UUP -0.6% monthly) — constructive for commodities and emerging markets. High-yield credit (HYG) marginally positive. No credit stress. POSTURE: Begin preparing the garden. Watchlist review appropriate. Scale into highest-quality candidates selectively. The patient gardener outperforms the rushed one every time. |
| WEBSITE WEATHER COMMENTARY Market conditions this week reflect a genuine seasonal transition. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are above their 50-day moving averages, and the VIX has moved below 20 — the Capital Seasons threshold for Early Spring. Earnings season is delivering double-digit growth for the sixth consecutive quarter. Sector leadership is concentrated in technology and AI, with improving participation from industrials, copper, and emerging markets. The Capital Seasons framework now reads Early Spring — Transitioning. Disciplined investors can begin reviewing their watchlists and preparing selective entries as conditions continue to improve toward confirmed Spring. capitalseasons.co.za |
| CAPITAL SEASONS — MARKET WEATHER MAP Week Ending 25 April 2026 | April 2026 (Seasonal Anchor) |
1. MARKET SEASON (Monthly Anchor)
| Current Market Season: ☐ Winter ☐ Late Autumn ☑ EARLY SPRING ☐ Spring ☐ Summer Season Status: ☐ Holding ☑ TRANSITIONING ☐ Strengthening ☐ Autumn Risk |
| CAPITAL SEASONS — SEASON FRAMEWORK (Updated April 2026) WINTER: Both SPY and QQQ below their 50D SMAAUTUMN: Either SPY or QQQ drops below its 50D SMA — caution, not panicEARLY SPRING: Both above 50D SMA + VIX below 20 — THIS WEEK ✓ (SPY +5.5%, QQQ +9.5%, VIX 18.71)SPRING: Both above 50D SMA + VIX below 18SUMMER: Both well above 50D SMA + VIX below 15 + broad sector participation The 200D SMA is used as a Summer confirmation anchor, not the Spring entry threshold. Full VectorVest stack positive = season change confirmed. |
2. WEEKLY MARKET WEATHER SIGNAL
| Market Weather This Week: ☐ Clear ☑ MOSTLY CALM ☐ Mixed ☐ Stormy ☐ Defensive |
3. MARKET CLIMATE SNAPSHOT
Both SPY and QQQ are above their 50-day moving averages for a second consecutive week — SPY at +5.5% and QQQ at +9.5%. These are meaningful margins, not hairline crossings. The recovery has depth and consistency. The VIX at 18.71 has fallen 30.6% over the month, confirming that fear has left the market and Early Spring conditions have been met. Both indices also remain well above their 200-day SMAs (SPY +6.8%, QQQ +10.4%), which adds additional structural weight to the positive reading.
Gold (GLD at $433.25) remains a standout — up 7.2% over the month, 11.5% above its 200-day SMA, and 40.6% over the trailing year. Gold’s continued strength signals that not all defensive demand has evaporated, and that real-asset positioning remains relevant even as the season transitions. High-yield credit (HYG at $80.48) is marginally positive on the month and near its 200-day SMA — no credit stress signals, which is a healthy green light for the equity recovery.
The US dollar (UUP at $27.48) softened slightly over the month (-0.6%). The rand moved approximately 2.5% weaker against the dollar. For South African investors with USD-denominated assets, this is a positive: converting offshore returns back to rands at a weaker exchange rate means more rands received per dollar. The JSE (JSEJF at R10.40/$) is 13.2% above its 50-day SMA and 40% above its 200-day SMA — running well ahead of US indices on a relative basis.
4. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR INVESTORS
Focus on:
- Watchlist preparation — Early Spring is the time to identify your best candidates, not to rush entries. Know what you will plant when the VIX confirms below 18.
- Quality holdings already in the portfolio — they are working for you now. Let them run. Premature trimming in Early Spring is one of the most common investor mistakes.
- Sectors with strong momentum and reasonable entry: copper and materials, energy services, technology on pullbacks.
Be cautious with:
- Overextended positions — semiconductors and AI have run 30-50% above their 200-day SMAs. These are holds, not new buys at these levels.
- Healthcare (XLV Quant 1.97) and Financials (XLF Quant 2.76) — both sectors are below or barely at their 200-day SMAs. Check individual holdings on their own merits.
Watch for:
- VIX moving and sustaining below 18 — that confirms full Spring and opens the garden for planting.
- Breadth improving — Healthcare, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary need to participate for a broad Spring rally.
5. CAPITAL SEASONS GUIDANCE
| Early Spring is the season of awakening — and of discipline. The temptation is to plant everything at once because the market feels good again. The wisdom is to plant only the strongest seeds, in the best-prepared soil, one deliberate position at a time. Your watchlist is ready. The season has turned. Wait for the VIX to confirm below 18, then begin — patiently and with intention. |
6. MARI’S OVERLAY
| My portfolio is up considerably from last week — and the data finally matches what I was feeling. Both indices above their 50-day moving averages, VIX below 20, earnings delivering. Early Spring is the right call. The gold miners are doing their job, my technology holdings have had a strong run, and the rand weakness this month has actually been kind to my USD exposure — more rands when I convert back, which is the way it works. I am not rushing to plant anything yet. But the watchlist is open, the criteria are clear, and I know exactly what I am waiting for: VIX below 18. When that happens, the first seeds go in. |
Capital Seasons Market Weather Maps are educational tools designed to support investor awareness and disciplined decision-making. They are not predictions and do not constitute personal financial advice.
| SECTOR SENSEI — ROTATION REPORT Week Ending 25 April 2026 | Early Spring Positioning |
THE SENSEI’S READING THIS WEEK
Early Spring changes the question we ask of the sector rotation data. We are no longer asking what survived Winter — we are asking what is positioned to lead the new season. The data this week gives a clear answer: technology and AI infrastructure are setting the pace. Copper and materials are building toward their Spring moment. Energy services have laid a strong base. The defensives — utilities, consumer staples — are fading from leadership, which is exactly what they should do as the season turns.
The honest caution: leadership is still narrow. For a fully confirmed broad Spring, we need Healthcare, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary to begin participating. They are not there yet. That is why this is Early Spring and not Summer — the breadth is building but not yet complete.
SECTOR RANKINGS — EARLY SPRING POSITIONING
| Rank | Sector / Theme | ETF | 1M Perf | 3M Perf | Early Spring Signal |
| 1 | Semiconductors | FTXL / PSI | +37–35% | +40–46% | LEADING — HOLD / PULLBACK ENTRY |
| 2 | AI Systems & Chatbots | AIS / CHAT | +32 / +24% | +37 / +29% | LEADING — HOLD / PULLBACK ENTRY |
| 3 | Technology (broad) | XLK | +17.7% | +10.4% | SPRING LEADER ✓ |
| 4 | Copper & Materials | COPX / XLB | +12.8 / +7.2% | -4.2 / +3.9% | SPRING PLANT CANDIDATE |
| 5 | Gold Miners | GDX / GDXJ | +13 / +13% | -12 / -15% | HOLD — CORE POSITION |
| 6 | Emerging Markets | EEM / EWZ | +12.8 / +8.9% | +7.9 / +9.2% | SPRING OPPORTUNITY |
| 7 | Energy Services | IEZ | +7.5% | +26.2% | STRONG BASE — SPRING PLANT |
| 8 | Industrials | XLI | +5.2% | +5.0% | PARTICIPATING — WATCH |
| 9 | Consumer Disc | XLY | +8.2% | -3.6% | MIXED — MONITOR |
| 10 | Financials | XLF | +4.3% | -3.1% | BELOW 200D SMA — NOT YET |
| 11 | Utilities | XLU | +2.4% | +8.5% | DEFENSIVE — FADING |
| 12 | Consumer Staples | XLP | +2.6% | +0.4% | DEFENSIVE — FADING |
| 13 | Healthcare | XLV | -0.4% | -8.4% | LAGGARD — INDIVIDUAL REVIEW |
| 14 | Traditional Energy | XLE | -6.5% | +15.6% | SHORT-TERM WEAK — WAIT |
SECTOR COMMENTARY
SEMICONDUCTORS & AI — LEADING BUT EXTENDED
PSI (Quant 4.90) up 34.8% in the month, FTXL (Quant 4.89) up 37.3%, AIS (Quant 4.78) up 31.6%. The earnings foundation is real — tech and semis account for approximately 78% of MSCI US earnings revision upgrades year-to-date. In Early Spring these are the leaders, but AIS is 51% above its 200-day SMA. At those extension levels, hold what you have and wait for a pullback before adding. The thesis is strong; the entry point needs patience.
COPPER & MATERIALS — THE SPRING PLANT CANDIDATE
COPX (Quant 4.44) is up 12.8% in the month with a strong 6-month base (+35.3%), but the 3-month picture is -4.2% — reflecting February-March commodity volatility. This is the classic Early Spring setup: strong long-term thesis (energy transition, data centre construction, EM recovery demand), building momentum, not yet overextended. Watch for the 3-month figure to turn positive as the plant signal.
GOLD MINERS — DOING THEIR JOB
GDX (Quant 4.46) and GDXJ (Quant 4.47) both up approximately 13% in the month, 16%+ above their 200-day SMAs. The 3-month weakness (-12% to -15%) reflects short-term gold price volatility, not a broken thesis. Gold itself (GLD) is up 40.6% over the year. In Early Spring these remain core holdings with upside leverage to continued gold strength. Hold.
ENERGY SERVICES vs TRADITIONAL ENERGY
The Iran ceasefire extension removed some oil risk premium, sending traditional energy (XLE -6.5% on the month) lower in the short term. The oil services sub-sector tells a different story: IEZ (Quant 4.44) is up 7.5% this month and 56.4% over six months — one of the strongest 6-month performers in the entire universe. Energy services are a legitimate Spring plant candidate; traditional upstream energy needs the short-term trend to stabilise first.
HEALTHCARE — THE LAGGARD TO WATCH
XLV (Quant 1.97) is down 0.4% in the month and 8.4% over three months. Still below its 200-day SMA. Individual holdings in this sector need their own Quant review — any name with a Quant below 3.0 warrants scrutiny. The sector will participate in Spring eventually. It is not there yet.
EARLY SPRING POSITIONING SUMMARY
| PLANT (when VIX < 18) Copper / Materials (3M recovering) Energy Services (IEZ — strong base) Semis / AI (on pullbacks only) Emerging Markets (EEM, EWZ) | HOLD (let them run) Gold miners (GDX / GDXJ) Gold (GLD) Tech / Semis already held Quality names above 50D SMA | REVIEW / PRUNE Healthcare (XLV Quant 1.97) China (FXI Quant 1.47) Traditional energy (short-term) Financials — check individually |
| Capital Seasons | Invest with the seasons. Not the noise. capitalseasons.co.za This commentary is grounded in the investment principles outlined in Dr Bart DiLiddo’s book — specifically the three forces that drive all stock prices: earnings, inflation, and interest rates. The Capital Seasons framework builds on these principles in its own way. Capital Seasons is an educational platform. Content does not constitute personal financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. |
Early Spring: The Numbers Say Yes, The News Says Maybe